When Airlines Decide It Is Too Late to Discount a Flight

Many travelers believe airlines will keep lowering prices right up until a plane fills.

That assumption is why people overpay.

At a certain point, airlines stop trying to sell volume and start protecting revenue. Once that decision is made, prices rarely fall again.

Understanding when airlines reach that point explains why waiting sometimes works and sometimes backfires.

Every flight has a selling phase.

Early on, airlines test how much travelers are willing to pay. Later, they decide whether discounts are necessary. Eventually, they stop discounting altogether.

This final phase happens when airlines believe:

Once this shift happens, prices are protected, not lowered.

Empty seats feel like leverage for travelers.

To airlines, they are not.

Close to departure, airlines expect:

These travelers pay more by necessity. Lowering prices at this stage risks undercutting higher value demand.

Airlines would rather leave a seat empty than discount it too aggressively late.

There is no universal rule for when discounts stop.

The cutoff depends on:

A competitive leisure route may discount longer. A business heavy route may stop discounting early.

This is why fixed booking rules often fail.

Once airlines stop discounting, pricing often moves in one direction.

Up.

This is not panic pricing. It is confidence pricing.

Airlines believe remaining demand will tolerate higher fares, so prices rise to capture maximum value from fewer buyers.

This is why prices can jump dramatically even when seats remain.

Southern California airports see heavy last minute demand.

Airports like:

Serve travelers with urgent and inflexible schedules. Airlines know this and adjust pricing accordingly.

Late stage discounts are less common here, especially on nonstop routes.

Many travelers wait too long assuming prices must fall eventually.

By the time airlines stop discounting, waiting no longer helps.

The smarter move is recognizing when pricing behavior shifts from testing to protection.

Once protection begins, the window has closed.

Experienced travelers:

Timing matters more than bravery.

Airlines do not miss opportunities to discount.

They stop when discounting no longer makes sense.

Knowing when that moment arrives is the difference between waiting wisely and waiting too long.

We track airfare price changes from Southern California airports and alert you when pricing behavior shifts from discounting to protection.

No guessing.
No false hope.
Just better timing.